The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. decreased by 0.8 percent in October 2022 to 114.9 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.5 percent in September. The LEI is now down 3.2 percent over the six-month period between April and October 2022, a reversal from its 0.5 percent growth over the previous six months.

"The US LEI fell for an eighth consecutive month, suggesting the economy is possibly in a recession," said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics, at The Conference Board. "The downturn in the LEI reflects consumers' worsening outlook amid high inflation and rising interest rates, as well as declining prospects for housing construction and manufacturing. The Conference Board forecasts real GDP growth will be 1.8 percent year-over-year in 2022, and a recession is likely to start around yearend and last through mid-2023."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.2 percent in October 2022 to 109.3 (2016=100), after an increase of 0.1 percent in September. The CEI rose by 1.1 percent over the six-month period from April to October 2022, faster than its growth of 0.9 percent over the previous six-month period.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index (LAG) for the U.S. increased by 0.1 percent in October 2022 to 116.3 (2016 = 100), following a 0.8 percent increase in September. The LAG is up 3.7 percent over the six-month period from April to October 2022, faster than its growth of 3.1 percent over the previous six-month period.