With volume for the month projected at 1.45 million units, March 2025 U.S. auto sales are estimated to translate to an estimated sales pace of 16.3 million units (seasonally adjusted annual rate: SAAR), according to S&P Global Mobility. This would bring the SAAR average in the first quarter of the year to a level of 16.0 million units.  While the first quarter of 2025 would reflect progress from a year-ago reading of 15.5 million units, it might be the high mark for a while, as auto tariffs take effect in April.

"Automakers, by way of incentives, and savvy consumers are likely attempting to get ahead of future uncertainty surrounding auto pricing levels by taking advantage of March deals," said Chris Hopson, principal analyst at S&P Global Mobility. "Downside risks to the auto demand and production environment abound as consumers face potential higher auto prices as a result of expected tariffs to imported vehicles and parts."

The S&P Global Mobility US auto outlook for 2025 reflects sustained, but more moderate growth levels for light vehicle sales, but consumer pressures and potential auto tariffs create notable downside risks to volume estimates at this time.

Continued development of battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales remains an assumption in the longer term S&P Global Mobility light vehicle sales forecast.  In the immediate term, some month-to-month volatility is anticipated. March BEV share is expected to reach 8.5%, an increase from February reported figures and reflective of the uneasiness as automakers, dealers and consumers continue to digest potential changes to BEV incentives.